According to the research by Japanese newspaper Asahi (online version) on 11 December, the coalition government of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito probably can maintain two thirds of the lower house (317/475 seats) in the general elections for the lower house held on Sunday.
The PM Shinzo Abe’s party, which has 293 seats, seems likely to get more than 300 seats. Therefore, even if the partner of the coalition, Komeito, which has 31 seats now, decrease their seats, the coalition government will maintain more than two thirds of 475 seats of the lower house.
On the other hand, the largest opposition party, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), will also increase their seats, from 62 to more than 70. Both “nationalist” parties, Japanese Innovation Party (JIP) and the Party for Future Generations (PFG), will decrease their seats from 42 to less than 30, and from 19 to less than 10 each. However, Japanese Communist Party (JCP) can be doubled seats from 8.
The voting rate will get lower again. According to Asahi, it can be around 55 % – the lowest after the WWII. At the moment, the lowest rate is the previous general elections of 2012, and it was 59.32 %. From the general elections for the lower house on Sunday, the number of seats will be decreased from 480 to 475.
As appeared in the expected low voting rate, indifferent to politics seems to help the political status quo. However, whatever the background of the voting, the winning party will get the legitimacy and say “people choose our party and policies” after the election.
When we think about elections, we have to carefully distinguish between “active” and “non-active” supports.
Dr. Masamichi IWASAKA