MIDDLE EAST: NEW CONFLICT LOOMING?

upa-admin 14 Aralık 2014 1.182 Okunma 0
MIDDLE EAST: NEW CONFLICT LOOMING?

Complexity of geopolitics all across the world are frequently emphasized by the experts. Emergence of strife of different nature in various parts of the world is increasing the tensions globally. In recent days, experts have addressed the new substance of the Israel-Palestine conflict, with the focus on resurgence of radical religious factions. The events have started to unfold based on perilous scenario. Tel-Aviv’s attempts to impose restrictions on some of the holy Muslim sites led to clashes in Jerusalem. There are fears that contradictions between the bigger players could exacerbate. Terrorism is gradually sprawling towards Iran’s borders. Is there a panacea?

Failure and Destitute: Nutrition Sources for Terrorism

Experts are warning about spiraling of geopolitical processes in the Asia-Pacific region. Three major international events were held in China, Myanmar and Australia. APEC, ASEAN and G-20 meetings addressed pressing issues for the world such as environment, politics, geopolitics, economy and culture (see: Виктор Сумский. Большая политика пошла на Восток / Международная жизнь, 19 November 2014).

However, it is fascinating that before a comprehensive analysis of the issue was even made, new developments have emerged that aggravated the situation in the Middle East. As if a shift of the ”big politics” towards Asia has brought about additional conflicts. Connection between the two processes may not be evident, but evaluation of the situation from the prism of global transformations urges us to exercise caution.

Analysts argue that Israel-Palestine conflict may exacerbate as it gains new substance in the Middle East. One of the key reasons is increased presence of radical religious groups, with ISIS being at the forefront (see: Вениамин Попов. На Ближнем Востоке разгорается новый пожар / МГИМО Университет, 21 November 2014). There still is a shortage of comprehensive information about the origins of this organization. Opinions differ. Even actions against ISIS by many nations, spearheaded by the U.S., do not produce tangible results. Apparently, it is either that certain power players are backing ISIS or resentment of the people in the Middle East pushes them to the new extremes.

In this connection, a Turkish analyst Ihsan Bal suggests an interesting opinion about the emergence of terrorist organizations. In the analytical article written for Turkish Center for Strategic Studies he notes, ”Terrorist organizations appearing in the region symbolize a synthesis of failure, helplessness and hatred” (see: Ihsan Bal. İŞİD’e Çare Tunus’ta mı? / www.usak.gov.tr, 17 November 2014).

If indeed correct, this means an entire region succumbed to disaster. Moreover, external influence must also be taken into account. Under such circumstances grievances of some peoples may overlap with the geopolitical interests of certain nations and that can pose threat for the entire world. That’s why it would make sense to evaluate the simmering tensions between Israel and Palestine in light of such an opinion.

This is the very approach that experts attempt to employ in assessing the reactions to Tel-Aviv’s onslaught against holy Muslim sites in Jerusalem (see: previous reference); including Jews entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque site and their conduct that defied religious rites that saw fierce response from the Muslim community, with subsequent loss of several lives.

In the aftermath, Palestinians killed several Jewish teenagers while a Palestinian youngster was burnt by the Israelis. As clashes continued and more lives were lost on November the 12th, the Israeli government made a decision to construct additional 200 residential buildings in the East Jerusalem. Leadership of the Palestinian authority was outraged by these actions and demanded the issue to be taken to the UN.

Towards New Clash: Political Statements and Geopolitical Interests

It was fascinating that on 16 November Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to ”win the battle for Jerusalem”. Apparently, Tel-Aviv takes the matters very seriously and concedes to no compromises. One of the most realistic candidates for the position of a Prime Minister, current Economy Minister Naftali Bennett considers Israel’s withdrawal from the newly-occupied territories inconceivable. He also rejects the possibility of establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank. Furthermore, he excludes any contacts with authorities in Gaza (see: Al-Ahram Weekly, 12 November 2014).

These developments have also compounded Israel-Jordan relations. Amman has recalled its Ambassador from Tel-Aviv, while Israeli Ambassador to Jordan warned of derailing relations with Jordan. Experts particularly emphasize that U.S. State Secretary John Kerry’s efforts to forge peace were futile and a testament to that has been deteriorating situation in the region.

Now the fears are that radical religious groups could benefit from the circumstances. ISIS leader has already called upon his supporters to start waging new jihad. Some even claim that the third Intifada (resistance movement) is on the way. Clashes in Jerusalem are ongoing. Official Tel-Aviv is worried about the possibility of situation getting out of hand. ”The Guardian” predicts a religious war breaking out between the Muslims and the Jews.

The most perilous aspect is associated with the likelihood of terrorist organizations being employed for geopolitical purposes. Indeed, certain risks emerge once the situation in the Middle East is viewed from that perspective. There are no stability guarantees in such regional nations as Syria, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon and Egypt. In fact, ISIS continues to gain more territories as it makes its way to the Iranian border. On the other hand, ferocious stance of radical religious factions against Israel signals a serious threat. Apparently, in the short-run, a new wave of instability to encompass Israel and Iran may emerge and this undoubtedly holds great perils for the entire world.

Another factor to aggravate the issue is information that terrorist organizations rampant in the region are backed by some of the Middle Eastern nations. In that case, countries of the region would accuse one another, with imminent confrontations to ensue. This could entail endless regional clashes. In the meantime, the big powers would want to capitalize on the volatility of the situation and use it for their interests. The experience demonstrates that this idea is justified. Allies of both Israel and Iran could become more engaged and that would only make matters worse.

Synthesis of terrorism and radical religiousness poses threat for other regions as well. From Central Asia to Europe, a vast geography could plunge into chaos. Therefore, ISIS already playing a certain role in the Israel-Palestine problem must not be regarded as solely a trouble of the Middle East. This process could impel activity of terrorist groups far beyond this region, including the spread of Armenian terrorism in the Caucasus, because it’s historically-proven fact that the Armenians seek every opportunity to do so.

The matter is not just limited to ISIS. The most dangerous part is someone attempting to use it for achieving geopolitical objectives. Apparently presence of such motives thwarts eradication of terrorism in the world. Therefore, in light of this reasoning, it is seemingly illogical for Tel-Aviv to increase its presence in the holy Muslim sites. Obviously there would be no winners in this struggle for Jerusalem. Why do the nations behave like this and expose the world to grave dangers? Will there be a clear and elaborate answer found to this question in the XXI century?

Newtimes.az

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