Since declaring its independence, Armenia has largely been helpless in tackling its political, economic and social grievances. Another dangerous problem of demographics is evident in its entire severity and persists as a negative trend.
According to the UN’s 2015 World Population Prospects, Armenia of today with the population of 3.018 million people would see a steady decline in numbers – 2.992 million in 2030, 2.729 million in 2050 and 1.700 million in 2100.i Based on information released by Karine Kuyumchuyan of the Census Department of the National Statistics Service of Armenia, the natural population growth in the country stood at 4091 people in the first quarter of 2015 – 8.6 percent decline from the year before (4447). During the same period, 18719 new babies were born which is 2.8 percent less than in 2014 (19249). Situation is similar in terms of marriages, with 10.3 percent drop – 8582 in the first quarter of 2015 versus 9563 in 2014.ii
Jochovurd newspaper claimed that judging by the information provided by the National Statistics Service, 1.5 million people left Armenia between 1992 and 2014.iii By 1 January 2016, Armenia’s population shrank by 12 thousand people compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the country’s population decreased by 35.9 people in the last five years, while total number since independence stands at 634.7 thousand. Urban population saw a decline of 5.5 thousand (1.9074 million) with Yerevan, Lori and Shirak account for the biggest losses. Rural population decreased by 6.5 thousand (1.0912 million). Although the death rate rose by 0.4 percent, the natural population growth stood at 13.980 people by the end of 2015.iv
Below are estimated population dynamics figures for Armenia in 2016:
Birth rate: 105 children/day (4.37 children/hour),
Death rate: 69 people/day (2.87 people/hour),
Migration rate: 31 people/day (1.28 people/hour).
0-15 years: 523,200 people (male 285,125; female 243,335),
14-64 years: 2,153,966 people (male 1,009,236; female 1,144,730),
64 years and over: 299,075 people (male 113,288; female 185,887).v
On the average, some 200 thousand Armenian citizens travel to Russia for seasonal employment.vi
Persistent economic and social problems and unresolved Nagorno Karabakh problem are among the most serious problems causing population decline. Failure to address those grievances would likely to strengthen trend of decline. Although Armenia attempts to tackle the problem of dwindling population by resettling the ethnic Armenians fleeing Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and other countries due to the ongoing conflicts in the Near and Middle East, the efforts have so far been futile. These wealthy Armenians leaving the conflict zones chose Europe and the U.S. over Armenia. Those who end up in Armenia are the economically vulnerable ones and thus, they are nothing but an added social and economic burden for the Armenian government.
Dr. Hatem CABBARLI
- ООН: Население Армении сократится до 1,7 миллиона, http://regnum.ru/news/society/1948057.html, 31 июля 2015.
- За 6 месяцев 2015 года в Армении родилось чуть меньше детей, чем в прошлом году, но количество смертей также снизилось, http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/195486/, 31 июля 2015.
- ”Жоховурд”: В действительности, численность населения Армении за последние 13 лет сократилась почти на 1 млн 600 тыс человек, http://www.times.am/?p=151378&l=ru, 16/12/2015.
- За год население Армении уменьшилось на 12 000 человек, составив 2 998, 6 тысяч, http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/204890/, 29 января 2016.
- Население Армении 2015, http://countrymeters.info/ru/Armenia.
- Ежегодно около 200 тысяч граждан Армении выезжают в Россию на заработки, www.regnum.ru/news/society/1910113.html, 30.03.2015.