The analytical articles saying geopolitical fight of great powers has reached a new level are being published in the world media. It is underlined that they are more active in the Central Asia. Nevertheless, the USA, Russia and China offer different cooperation models. It is very difficult to say which of them will be successful. The fight is getting more intense.
Three integration models
Didier Chaudet stressed in France`s Le Huffington Post paper that it is difficult for the European political thought to acknowledge the existence of topical geopolitical problems outside the Middle East region. It is a serious mistake. Experience shows that great powers pursue a political course ensuring their interests on a global scale and Central Asia occupies a major place here. The French expert did not mention it by chance. He came to this conclusion by analyzing the recent steps taken by the USA, Russia and China (see Дидье Шоде. Китайская политика в Средней Азии: как реагируют Запад и Москва? / “İnosmi.ru”, 29 September 2013).
In reality, the geopolitical fight of great powers in the Central Asia incorporates complex diplomatic moves and multivector policy. Their activity in fact spans wider areas. Russia, China and the United states look at the Central Asian region in the transatlantic area context. It particularly includes geopolitical features of Eurasia. Eventually after that, the Central Asia is considered as an important part of the post-Soviet area (see Пламен Димитров. Средняя Азия и Кавказ: Между Россией и США / “Центр Политических Экспертиз”, 12 June 2003).
According to analysts, integration issues are of more importance in this region now. More concretely, Russia, China and the USA are trying to realize their own models. The interesting point here is that all great powers seek to create a single socio-economic, cultural and geopolitical territory rather than to dismember it.
It is a positive thing in itself. What makes us concerned is that all the three countries offer different integration models. Sometimes, discrepancies increase to such a degree, which can give rise to a threat of contradictions.
In the same vein, experts` discussions held in Washington and Istanbul on the prospects for integration in the Central Asia arouse a keen interest. (see M. Smith USA: Политики и стратеги обсуждают перспективы интеграции в Центральной Азии / “EurasiaNet”, 4 November 2013). It is interesting that the event participants came to a conclusion that there is a difference in the stances of leading cohort of political circles of America and mid-level officials.
The American diplomats and businessmen working in the Central Asia cast doubt on the effectiveness of Washington`s activities in the region. Specialists shaping foreign policy speak of strategically important plans such as the New Silk Road. The information provided by Pentagon representative James Bullion at the Washington event surprised everybody. He stated that the mandate of the Task Force for business and stability operations in the region expired in 2014. Experts described this as the lack of the US`s clear strategy in the region.
The reason is that NATO troops must be pulled out from Afghanistan in 2014. It means that Washington does not intend to be active in the Central Asia. It is not accidental that the event organized by the Hollings Center in Istanbul expressed doubts over prospects for cooperation with the Central Asia. One of panelists underlined that: “Each of the great powers – Russia, the USA and China – offer competition-based regional integration models in the region but in many cases their interests and intentions are radically different” (see previous source).
Fight for influence: competition increases
America`s position looks suggestive in the light of the activities of Russia and China in the region. China makes more investments in the Central Asia. For instance, China is going to raise its trade with Kazakhstan to USD 40 billion. Given that it is 25 billion dollars at present, experts believe that finding additional investments worth 14 billion within such a short period of time is “selflessness” (see Китайские цели в Центральной Азии / “CentrAsia.ru”, 12 November 2013)
China`s leadership is ready to spend great amount of financial resources in order to achieve its strategic goals. Official Beijing tries to implement more concrete plans in the Central Asia because of the exacerbating Uyghur issue. On the one hand, China expands its ties with the regional countries and, on the other hand, pre-empts possible terror (see Владислав Гулевич. Уйгурский вопрос для Китая / “Международная Жизнь”, 6 November 2013). In this context, they do not rule out ulterior aspects behind the US`s withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
However, China does not limit this issue to the US`s “strategic traps” only. The media is reporting on the some geopolitical plans realized by Russia without irritating China.
For his article published in The Diplomat magazine on November 5, 2013, Zachary Keck chose the title “To Hedge Its Bets, Russia Is Encircling China.”
The Kremlin takes serious steps to elevate relations with Japan, Vietnam, the North Korea, the South Korea and India to a new level. It cultivates economic, energy and military cooperation with each country. Putin`s and Medvedev`s Far East visits saw a number of agreements signed. Russia-Japan negotiations in a 2+2 format are presented as a historical event. Putin managed to sign a number of cooperation agreements with Vietnam. In addition, Moscow forgave major part of the North Korea`s multi-billion debt to the USSR. The remaining one billion will be repaid by Pyongyang within a period of 20 years. The parties agreed to build a railroad between the two countries.
Russia is expanding ties with the South Korea and India. Its trade with Seoul is worth USD 25 billion and there is an agreement to increase it by 3%. (see the previous source). New steps are being taken towards India-Russia cooperation. The main focus of discussions here is the cooperation in production of military equipment and ships.
We must say that all these facts do not prevent Moscow from cooperating with Beijing. Although the trade between the two countries is around USD 90 billion, the nations set an objective to increase it to $100 billion by 2015.
The steps taken by Russia means strengthening of Moscow`s positions in the countries located around China. It is a response to Beijing’s activity in the Central Asia to some extent. China increases its geopolitical influence near Russia`s borders through mainly economic and financial factors whereas the Kremlin largely focuses on creation of military and transport infrastructure in the countries neighboring China. The time will show which methods are more effective.
Thus, the struggle for the geopolitical influence between the USA, Russia and China in the Central Asia has reached a new level. It is necessary to consider many factors. At this point, Moscow and Beijing seem to be more active in the region. It is too risky to say which country has more chances in the long run. Washington may bring surprise as the world`s strongest nation.
Kaynak: Newtimes.az
