upa-admin 11 Şubat 2014 2.257 Okunma 0

Media speculates about recent deterioration of Yerevan-Brussels relations. In the meantime, other evident trends are being talked upon. Namely, that Europe pushes for cooperation with Armenia in certain areas, and this is thought-provoking in view of Russia’s growingly active geopolitical position in the region.

Some aspects of a doomed policy

On the other hand, ”Al-Qaeda” may target Russia and China in the wake of Washington’s 2014 troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Evidently, Kremlin has already started to acknowledge the Muslim factor more seriously. This is precisely why the Armenian experts insist that their country is “sandwiched” between Russia and Iran.

Nagorno Karabakh issue is particularly emphasized because this subject is of crucial importance in Armenia’s relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. it is not accidental that Armenian media frequently reports on alleged upcoming membership of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Customs Union, claiming that this fact would expedite Armenia’s membership. Their argument is the European Union’s approach towards the Nagorno Karabakh issue.

Such an opinion was reflected in a recent article dedicated to this subject. In his article published on ”Panarmenia” website author claims that: ”Europe will sever Artsakh (Armenians’ reference to Nagorno Karabakh – from Armenia” (see: Арсен Левонян. Цена Ассоциации Армении с ЕС – ”категорическое отделение от Карабаха”? /, 20 August 2013). Author attempts to depict ostensible anti-Armenian sentiment in Europe, insisting that because of Turkey and Azerbaijan Brussels will never recognize Nagorno Karabakh as an independent state. He refers to the remarks by the British expert S. Manukyan and his Czech counterpart E. Lerner. The former was quoted saying that: ”European Union… does not recognize Nagorno Karabakh and will not do so in the future… Europeans will never accept Armenia’s protector status over Nagorno Karabakh…” (see: previous source).

Nonetheless, some Armenian experts have always described Russia as Armenia’s supporter on the Nagorno Karabakh issue. The logic is clear – some quarters utilize the Nagorno Karabakh problem for speculative depiction of Armenia-EU and Armenia-Russia relations. The point is, they are using same false logic to completely distort the facts related to sales of Russian made weapons to Azerbaijan. They are accusing Moscow of treason and of placing Armenians in a predicament by joining forces with the Turks.

These people are so frivolous to claim, on one hand, that Russia is the country that created the very Armenia and on the other hand, to insist that Yerevan is actually pursuing an independent policy. They even entertain absurd idea that neither Russia nor the West is in the position to take away Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia.

Regardless, the above mentioned is the reality of Armenia’s foreign policy. One can only guesstimate the future substance of Armenia’s controversial relations with the European Union. Nonetheless, it is already obvious that the official Yerevan will always be deprived of independent policy and hesitant between the big players. This, along with other reasons, will add to the uncertainty in the security environment of the South Caucasus. In geopolitical terms, Armenia will continue to remain the source of risk in the region.

This side of the problem reveals some thought-provoking and global scale aspects. Armenia will always have to perform a disruptive role in the fierce influence struggle of the big powers. Marginality has already been incorporated into the substance of this nation. This leads to significant conclusions with respect of fiasco of the Armenian statehood.

First, it appears that if Azerbaijan and Georgia do stride towards bolstering their national statehood, Armenia conversely positions itself on the opposite side. This is indeed a threat to region’s political, geopolitical, economic and cultural integrity. Logically, a position of this kind can always put the big powers of the region against each other, meaning that external influences over the South Caucasus are likely to persist.

Second, Armenia will presumably continue to play a negative role in terms of energy security of the region. The stakeholder powers will go on manipulating Armenia to best suit their needs, leading to energy factor being potentially used as a tool of geopolitical leverage.

Third, Armenia obviously has scarce chances of genuine cooperation with the European Union. Yerevan has deceived Brussels so far, and being squeezed between Moscow and Tehran may only stimulate the trend.

Fourth, official Yerevan will utilize the issue of Nagorno Karabakh to reach the highest asking price for itself. It’s hard to believe that Armenia will be a genuine player on this topic. Such a situation will dramatically reduce the chances of efficient performance of the brokers. Hence, it’s either the mediators that must be replaced or Armenian leadership needs to be seriously coerced.

The above mentioned ultimately attests to hare-brained and insincere policy pursued by Armenia. Some Armenian politicians are confined to the framework of Armenia diaspora while others are obsessed with the idea of radical nationalism. The world, in the meantime, has abandoned this narrow circle long ago.




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