“RED LINE” IN GEOPOLITICS: WHO CROSSES IT?

upa-admin 19 Mayıs 2014 1.892 Okunma 0
“RED LINE” IN GEOPOLITICS: WHO CROSSES IT?

The developments in Ukraine are analyzed at different levels. Famous analysts and experts make their analysis in the aspect of the global geopolitics principles. They come up with interesting ideas and note the emergence of new trends. Failure to observe several principles constitutes the main reason for that. Experts come to interesting conclusions evaluating the processes ongoing in various regions. This is all interesting in terms changes that occurred in the world geopolitics as a whole.

World hegemony ambitions: a factor that deepens the crisis

The progress of events shows that the Ukrainian issue has become a serious headache for the global geopolitics. Great powers have become even more active. Diplomatic bodies take completely different steps. The West and Russia do not intend to make concessions to each other. On the contrary, some messages indicate that the tussle for influence gains a new momentum.

Of great interest is the analysis of the present situation in this context made by famous philosopher and analyst Noam Chomsky (see: Chomsky: US Leaders’ Panic Over Crimea Is About Fear of Losing Global Dominance / ”AlterNet”, 3 May 2014). The expert assesses the issue in the aspect of the US strategic interests. According to him, the major problem is the failure to realize leadership ambitions of Washington. In this context, Crimea is seen as the ”red line” of the American foreign policy. More specifically, America is not concerned about occupation of Crimea. The main thing is that the essence of such actions of Russia contradicts the US` hegemony ambitions (see: the previous source).

The same ideas can be found in one of the articles of another American analyst Zbigniew Brzezinski. He says: ”President Barack Obama needs to articulate clearly to the American people, and very soon, that the Ukraine crisis is the most important challenge to the international system since the end of the Cold War” (see: Zbigniew Brzezinski. What Obama Should Tell Americans About Ukraine / ”Politico Magazine”, 2 May 2014).

The political analyst believes that the crisis deepened so much that it is necessary to consolidate the nation. The American people should understand that it is about the USA`s reputation in the world. Specifically, Brzezinski suggests that official Washington evaluates the present situation and make strategic decisions. What realities are behind what Chomsky and Brzezinski underline?

The heart of the problem in the geopolitical aspect lies in it. According to analysts, after the “Cold War” American “red lines” are placed on the present Russian borders in the geopolitical sense. In other words, Moscow must not have enough influence to challenge Washington. Occupation of Crimea is the serous violation of this principle. For this reason, Obama must respond to the present situation more resolutely.

In our opinion, it is necessary to note another factor. We mean who is seen by the USA as the main partner in Europe. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel has recently made a visit to America. Results of the talks held indicated that Americans may experience serous difficulties in resolution of the problems in the Eastern Europe without Germany’s support (see: Igor Muradian. Трансатлантический тандем / ”Lragir.am”, 6 May 2014). One should not forget how the United Kingdom and France will respond to this stance. It means that the single position on the geopolitical status of America in Eurasia has not formed yet in the EU countries. No doubt, Washington must take account of this aspect in its foreign policy.

”Red line of Washington”: punishment of those who do not recognize

If takeover of Crimea in the aspect of geopolitical interests of America is a ”red line” anyway, the Ukrainian developments may gain even more serous momentum. The conduct of the referendum in the Eastern provinces of the country testifies, from this point of view, to the emergence of delicate issues.

The proposal of the other American analyst George Friedman on forming the single geopolitical position from Estonia to Azerbaijan comes to mind here (see: George Friedman. From Estonia to Azerbaijan: American Strategy After Ukraine / ”Stratfor.com”, 25 March 2014). Even though, the founder of Stratfor puts the questions not so overtly as Chomsky and Brzezinski do, nevertheless, the proposal to form the single anti-Russian alliance in the wider geopolitical area virtually indicates to where the ”red line” lies. In this context, it seems as if Friedman in fact throws an idea of forming an international consensus against Russia.

The root of the problem lies in Washington`s inability to get international support in this issue. For example, America and the United Kingdom had to concede in Iraq because of inability to achieve this goal. According to the common principle, it is possible to act on the geopolitically important issues by relying on the international consensus only and paying no heed to the interests of the other great geopolitical forces.

Russia does not have international support on the Ukraine issue. Therefore, the steps to be taken will not be recognized. In order not to find itself in a similar situation, America must create international alliance in some form. It is interesting that Friedman`s proposals directly serve this aim. But the question remains open as it is unknown at the expense of interests of which countries this alliance will be established.

More specifically, Americans seem to not care about this aspect of the problem since actions of several countries – from Estonia to Azerbaijan – against Russia is a difficult matter. And, it is not clear if it is worth doing this. For this reason, many countries may find themselves in a complicated situation because of the West`s observing this “red line”. Unfortunately, these are indisputable realities of the modern geopolitics.

One conclusion that can be made from the above-mentioned is that the Ukraine issue is the problem, which does not fit into regional geopolitical interests. Great powers pursue the goals that are related to the global strategic interests. It is difficult to say how it will end up. One thing is obvious is that the tense fight was kickstarted at a new level. No doubt, China will join this process sooner or later. But it is risky to say which status and capacity China will use in its actions.

Thus, some western experts do not rule out the option of attracting China to the international coalition to stop Russia. But they do not say about the principles of doing this. They seem to be unsure of the progress of such events themselves. It is not a secret that uncertainty prevails in the geopolitical environment at a global level.

In fact, the above-mentioned ideas of such thinkers as Brzezinski, Friedman and Chomsky show one truth. There is a deep division in the global geopolitics. There are differences in the stance of several great powers. They even heighten discrepancies among each other with concrete actions. Such a situation undoubtedly poses a threat to the global security. It is noteworthy that great powers do not alter their positions even if they see this trend.

As far as the US` stance on the Ukraine issue is concerned, the chance of any concession is slim to none. Moscow and Washington seem to assert their interests at any cost till the end. Russia will not allow emergence of the strong but unfriendly state at its borders. America, for its part, regards this border as the area related to its national security. Some US official has recently stated that the Ukraine issue is the issue of national security of the United States. It means that the fight may be elevated to a new level.

It shows that great powers draw their own ”red lines” and demand to observe them. Against this backdrop, indifference is shown towards the same demands of the countries, whose territorial integrity was violated. Why don’t famous analysts and diplomats express their opinions on this aspect of the problem? Perhaps, they pursue some subjective interests. The truth says: even a small problem in the modern world may underline the global geopolitical environment. Probably, this is the reason why the humanity has known no rest for so long time!

Source: Newtimes.az

Leave A Response »

Time limit is exhausted. Please reload the CAPTCHA.