For over six decades ”Sword of Damocles” is hanging over the humanity manifested in a threat of a nuclear clash of the big powers. In the event of a nuclear war between the U.S. and Soviet Union during the ”Cold War” period, the world was doomed to annihilation in thirteen minutes. Therefore, at that time, the United States maintained their surface missiles launch capability at 3-4 minutes upon the orders. Similar arrangements were followed in the USSR. It was only the nuclear parity and acknowledgement that future nuclear war would produce no winners, kept the conflicting parties – U.S. and USSR – from crazy actions.
However, the circle of nations possessing nuclear capabilities has grown in the last several decades. Moreover, ”nuclear baton” ended up in the hands of such adverse parties as India-Pakistan and North Korea-South Korea (with the U.S. being its nuclear ally). Other than that, geopolitical rejuvenation on the international arena of America’s traditional rival – Russia – in the XXI century compels the American strategists not to rule out the possible use of nuclear arsenal in the event of deteriorating crisis situation, particularly on the European continent.
Speaking on new U.S. nuclear doctrine back in 2010, Vice-President Joe Biden said, ”The threat of a global nuclear war is more acute than ever before”. Accordingly, it declares that priorities of the U.S. have changed; threat of nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation replaced the standoff between nuclear powers. Therefore, America’s objective, in close cooperation with other nuclear nations, is to efficiently deter those threats.
“Russian military also does not rule out a probability of a nuclear war at its borders. Countries actively cooperating with the North Atlantic Alliance can be drawn into it”. This was the statement made by the Joint Chief of Staffs of the Russian armed forces Nikоlay Makarov in late 2011. He attributed the conflict risk to the expansion of NATO’s influence in the vicinity of the country’ borders, and attempts to lure Ukraine and Georgia into the North Atlantic Alliance. Under certain circumstances, I do not exclude that local and regional armed conflicts may grow into a large-scale war, involving the use of nuclear weapons” (Interfax).
Undoubtedly, the world powers are acutely aware of each other’s military potential, to deliberately unleash a nuclear war; well-established procedures of satellite intelligence reduce to the minimum the risk of being drawn into war. However, the probability of an unauthorized use of nuclear weapons by the volatile countries is high. Furthermore, escalation of a certain local conflict into a world nuclear war cannot be ruled out. It is no coincidence that prominent political and military figures are mentioning this issue in their comments related to Ukrainian crisis that has exacerbated in recent months. One can only hope that common sense and restraint of the world leaders prevails and they abandon ”kamikaze-style” nuclear ambitions.
Prof. Dr. Parvin DARABADİ
D.Sc. (Hist.), Professor
