Introduction
Countries’ relations depend on a certain way, called “foreign policy”. The process of foreign policy formation can change the situations and external factors in which countries are involved. At this point, Turkey (Türkiye) has focused on the values of independence and sovereignty, pacifism, adherence to international law, humanitarianism and benevolence, diplomacy and dialogue, multilateral foreign policy, regional stability and security, cultural diplomacy and soft power, which it has determined as the basis for foreign policy formation in bilateral and multilateral relations. For sure, extreme circumstances and wars can undermine foreign policy principles. Changes in Turkish foreign policy after the Hamas-Israeli conflict can be an explanatory reason for this situation.
Turkish Foreign Policy after the October 7, 2023 Hamas Attack
Turkey has always supported the settlement of the dispute between Palestine and Israel within the framework of the United Nations’ two-state solution plan. In this context, Turkey advocates the official recognition of an independent and free Palestinian State with physical integrity within the 1967 borders and Jerusalem as its capital.
However, the process that started on October 7, 2023, with Hamas’ Operation Aqsa forced Turkey to revise its foreign policy strategies and plans in the Middle East region. After the attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emphasized that these methods were wrong and that Israel’s possible military intervention would have dire consequences. Turkey tried to restrain Israel by actively using “regional and global diplomacy” on this sensitive issue. No results appeared. This situation necessitated changes in Turkey’s foreign policy.
Before the operation, the regional policy plan was to foster improved relations and cooperation throughout the broader region, from Yemen to Turkey, to end the war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, to normalize relations between Turkey and Israel, and to prepare Turkey for the new global competitive environment. Despite this, the changes caused by the developments in the region have been particularly effective in ending/postponing the normalization of Turkey-Israel relations and increasing Turkey’s weight in regional politics, normalization of connection with the Gulf countries, and improvement of relations with Egypt. Furthermore, the support for Palestinian statehood has grown steadily amid the challenging circumstances in Gaza, a topic frequently highlighted at both national and international summits, at meetings of regional/globally influential organizations such as the United Nations, NATO, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Organization of Turkic States, all visits and receptions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. These steps have also improved Turkey’s relations with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and once again demonstrated Turkey’s desire to be a leader in the Islamic world.
Turkey’s bilateral and multilateral diplomacy activities have shown that Ankara has given more influence to humanitarian diplomacy in this process and emphasized the need to increase the use of soft power and to re-prefer diplomatic mediation. Unfortunately, diplomatic processes remained unanswered. The tension between Israel and Palestine has rapidly spread across the region, threatening the peace, tranquillity, and stability in the area and drawing many countries into this war.
Iran is one of these countries. Iran carried out an intense missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024. The war that started between Palestine and Israel has now begun to spread to the nearby geography. This situation has raised security concerns among neighbouring countries.
Tensions between Israel and Iran: Turkey’s Stance
The greatest danger of the Iran-Israel conflict is the potential escalation into a regional war. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan underlined this process by saying: “Humanity has come to a crossroads in Gaza, where either a bigger war or peace will emerge.”
It is reasonable to assume that Turkey has pursued a balanced policy in the tension between Israel and Iran. At the beginning of the Gaza crisis, Turkey pointed out that Israel’s security depends on a two-state solution and warned that the crisis could either lead to peace or a regional war. Despite that, Iran’s mobilization against Israel with its forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and Israel’s efforts to make the United States (U.S.) a part of the conflict brought these two countries into a direct military disagreement for the first time.
Turkey’s concerns stemming from this conflict centred on maintaining regional stability and advancing its national interests. The reason for this situation is the migration from Syria to Turkey after the Arab Spring, Iran’s military presence in Syria, and the possibility of a new migration process and threat to Turkey’s border security after a direct attack by Israel. The realization of such a situation could lead to a bigger war and a complete change in regional politics. Furthermore, high tension between Israel and Iran can badly affect Turkey’s involvement in Eastern Mediterranean energy projects and bilateral and multilateral economic-commercial relations between countries on issues such as natural gas, oil exports, and the security of trade routes.
The Development Process in Turkey-Iran Relations
The relationships between states depend on shared history, cultural bonds, geographical proximity, regional requirements, and mutual interests. Turkey’s desire to establish close associations with Iran can be attributed to “mutual benefits”.
Turkey is dependent on energy imports. Iran is among the countries that sell natural gas and oil to Turkey, creating the first point of dependence in bilateral relations. It is clear that the first reason for unity is “trade and economic ties”.
Another point is “security and maintaining stability in the region”. Iran’s influence in countries such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen and its position as a strong state in the region also effectively facilitate cooperation.
Secondly, reducing the tension that sectarian differences may create in the region, managing the effects on Syria and Iraq, and balancing the Trans-Caspian and Caucasus have pushed Turkey to cooperate with Iran.
Turkish Troops in Northern Syria
The constant mobility in the region prevents a precise interpretation of the developments and only allows for prediction. One of these situations is Turkey’s reaction to the mobility in northwestern Syria. Due to the Assad regime, military developments in the region, and international and regional dynamics, the question is: How will the Turkish Army act against all these dynamics? Turkey’s priority is to act in line with its security interests.
In northwest Syria, mainly Turkey has carefully maintained its balance policy, but it has also carried out military operations against the YPG/PKK. If there is a threat from the northwestern part of Syria to the areas under the control of the Turkish Army, it can prevent these groups. Of course, this can only happen if there is a “direct threat to Turkey’s security”.
Moreover, Turkey is not alone in the northwestern region of Syria. The diplomatic, bilateral, and multilateral relations with the Assad regime and its biggest supporter, Russia, have a huge impact on the decisions made in this region.
Key questions to consider regarding potential Turkish military actions:
- What is the extent of military cooperation between Iran and Turkey?
- What is the current status of the opposition groups in Syria?
- What is Russia’s position in this process?
- How will the international community view Turkey in the event of a possible operation?
- What actions will be taken if the regional humanitarian crisis worsens?
Conclusion
In conclusion, the shifting balances in the Middle East, the conflict in Gaza, Iran’s regional influence, Turkey’s multifaceted foreign policy, and Israel’s security concerns continue on the axis. At this point, Turkey both emphasizes its support for Palestine and tries to pursue a policy of balance with countries such as Israel and Iran. Although the prospects for lasting peace and stability in the region seem remote, the role of each actor is critical.
Oğuzhan MANİOĞLU
