Istanbul’s popular Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu (1971-), who is widely seen by the opposition voters as Türkiye’s next President, was arrested on March 23, 2025, on the day his party held a primary election to nominate him as the party’s presidential candidate for the next election that is going to take place in 2028 in regular schedule. İmamoğlu was arrested based on charges such as leading a criminal organization, bribery, misconduct, and corruption, along with dozens of his staff and municipal officials and was brought to Silivri Prison. İmamoğlu was also accused of aiding the terrorist organization PKK through “City Consensus” (Kent Uzlaşısı) platform, but since he was already arrested on corruption charges, the request for arrest as part of the terrorism investigation was rejected. This means the government will most probably not appoint a trustee (kayyum) to Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) and a CHP (Republican People’s Party) member from the Municipal Council will replace İmamoğlu as the new Mayor. However, if İmamoğlu is arrested or found guilty of terrorism charges as well, the central administration would have a chance to appoint a trustee to IBB.
The arrest decision for İmamoğlu led to huge protests across the country, especially in big cities and universities. Many university groups even called for a boycott of the courses until İmamoğlu is freed. President Erdoğan on the other hand condemned the demonstrations and accused CHP of trying to “disturb the peace and polarize our people“. Erdoğan also threatened the protesters and said that those who are responsible for vandalism acts during the protests will be held accountable for what they did. According to CNN, more than 1,000 people were already arrested during the protests. This number could rise rapidly in the coming days if the protests will continue.
As a response to this controversial process, the main opposition party CHP’s leader Özgür Özel called for the boycott of pro-Erdoğan TV channels and firms that ignored and/or despised popular protests across the country while describing the whole judicial process as “a coup against democracy“. Özel also promised to pursue a legal and democratic struggle against İmamoğlu’s arrest and claimed that evidences against İmamoğlu are not just, based mostly on testimonies of secret witnesses. Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç on the other hand stated that the judicial process continues without any political interference and everyone should respect the laws of the country.
In the meantime, the CHP’s primary election on Sunday (March 23, 2025) turned into a showdown for all opposition actors in the country. CHP administration decided to put extra ballots in all constituencies and invited non-party members as well to vote for İmamoğlu, the only candidate of the party for the primary. According to party chair Özgür Özel, in addition to 1.6 million party members, 13 million people outside of the party also voted for İmamoğlu. This means almost 15 million people participated in the primary election and showed their reaction to the Erdoğan government. İmamoğlu was eventually declared as the party’s presidential candidate. However, due to the cancellation of his university diploma by Istanbul University and ongoing charges against him, it seems highly unlikely for İmamoğlu to be able to contest in the next presidential election. In that sense, CHP might come up with another candidate before the election who would promise to save İmamoğlu from prison. Moreover, due to fraud allegations against the party’s congress in late 2023, during which Özgür Özel surprisingly defeated CHP’s long-serving chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the party administration decided to organize an extraordinary congress on April 6, 2025. Party leader Özgür Özel said that this is a precautionary decision to prevent a possible trustee appointment to the party.
While the opposition in the country considers this process as the death of democracy and Türkiye’s transition into an openly authoritarian regime, the pro-government press and people on the other prefer to focus on accusations against İmamoğlu and the IBB administration. The pro-government press has been initiating an active campaign to defame İmamoğlu by writing and speaking extensively about accusations against İmamoğlu without caring so much about the “presumption of innocence” (innocent until proven guilty principle). Erdoğan loyalists also underline that the CHP administration’s quick decision to nominate İmamoğlu years before the next presidential election shows that they knew about the legal process against them. As a response, CHP supporters and leading opposition figures indicate the timing of the judicial process, on the eve of İmamoğlu’s declaration as the official candidate for his party.
Whatever the reality is, it is a fact that Türkiye’s political polarization has risen significantly with this process. Now there is a large bloc against the pro-government actors such as AK Parti, MHP, and other Islamist/ultranationalist/conservative parties, composed mainly of the CHP but also including many other social groups and different political parties. In that sense, it seems like two big parties and blocs will continue to compete for political power in Türkiye and CHP has become a real “mass party” or even a “catch-all party” during this process. That is why, if the next elections are conducted properly, the CHP might have a huge chance to win the race with İmamoğlu or another candidate such as Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş or the party chair Özgür Özel himself.
The decision of the third bloc, the Kurds (represented mainly by the DEM Party) on the other hand will be another crucial factor for the future of the country. While pro-Kurdish political parties traditionally defend democracy and political freedoms in the country and have great sympathy for Ekrem İmamoğlu, due to ongoing talks with imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and a chance to finalize a peace deal with the current government, they seem a bit confused and hesitant for the moment.
To comment objectively, events in Türkiye erupted at a time when the democratic regimes are in decline in the whole world, which gave chance to Turkish government to survive despite large protests. It seems like the United States (USA) President Donald Trump and his team are too busy with diplomacy with Russia for the peace in Ukraine and the democracy in Türkiye might not be their priority. The European Union (EU) on the other hand has always been more critical of authoritarian developments in Türkiye compared to the USA, but now they might not dare to risk losing the Turkish government’s support due to the critical Syrian migrants deal as well as Türkiye’s balancing position against Russia in Ukraine and Syria. In that sense, in my opinion, President Erdoğan plays his cards very carefully and cleverly in foreign policy and forces influential foreign actors dependent on each other. To put it simply, at a time when the far-right movements such as the AfD in Germany reach their peak, the cancellation of the Syrian migrants deal with Türkiye might lead to a flow of hundred thousands of more illegal immigrants into Europe and lead to disastrous consequences. Likewise, neither the USA and nor Russia can afford to lose Türkiye completely to keep their influence many regions where Ankara is very active and influential. That is why, I do not think serious sanctions might come from the USA or even from Europe at this conjuncture. But let me add that if economic sanctions are applied against Ankara, this would probably lead to a catastrophic consequence in the economy.
Finally, in my opinion, the structural conditions, critical foreign policy mistakes by Washington and Brussels in the recent past, and the Turkish government’s exceptional skills in public diplomacy and propaganda led to the regression of the competitive democratic regime in the country. The opposition’s stubborn attitude in not cooperating with the Erdoğan regime also drives the government into a corner and turns the political game in Türkiye into “Squid Game“, a matter of life and death. That is why, to survive and to save his people, Erdoğan also acts very harshly and the system does not leave any space for democratic negotiations and cooperation, the essentials of a proper democratic regime. It should not be forgotten that Türkiye’s developing ties with the non-Western and non-democratic world also have increased considerably in recent years and the country has become a “dialogue partner” for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and a “partner country” for the BRICS+. Moreover, in the last three years, Türkiye’s biggest trade partners have always been Russia and China. In that sense, looking from a geopolitical perspective, as far as I am concerned, unless Türkiye’s ties with the USA and the EU are restored properly, the country will increasingly transform into an “intermediate region” (arabölge) between the Western and non-Western world, connecting two different worlds like a “bridge“.
Here are some interesting photos from protests in Türkiye:
Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ
