Religious holidays in Türkiye (Turkey) are traditionally known as a time when resentments are reconciled and arguments are settled. However, as a result of this year’s unexpected developments, Ramadan 2025 is taking place in a highly tense and polarized environment in Türkiye. Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried to prevent this situation by extending the holiday for all public institutions and universities to 9 days, the protests that started after the detention and arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Ekrem İmamoğlu are not slowing down. Especially opposition party voters and young people are outraged after the popular IBB Mayor, whom they democratically elected, was blocked politically with the arrestation in addition to the socio-economic problems in the country in the last decade.
On March 19, millions of citizens are estimated to have participated in the peaceful demonstrations that started all over Türkiye, centered on Saraçhane, where the IBB building is located after Imamoğlu was detained. On Saturday, March 29, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) organized a grand rally in Istanbul-Maltepe, which more than 2 million people attended. The rally was very peaceful, with harsh slogans, humorous and creative banners, as well as “cool” actions reflecting the spirit of the youth in Türkiye who oppose Islamism and authoritarianism.
In an article published on the website of the International Policy Academy (UPA) academic initiative, Nilfem Baykan, who observed the protests from the inside, categorized the protesters into 4 main groups: the classical modernist/Kemalist/social democrat CHP base, leftist groups from socialist and trade union movements, nationalist/Atatürkist circles with a far-right orientation such as the Victory Party (ZP) -ZP leader Ümit Özdağ was also arrested a few weeks ago-, and the unconscious angry mass.
Although the rally was dominated by Turkish flags and posters of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, it was an important detail that the pro-Kurdish DEM Parti was also present in Maltepe. The DEM Parti wants to maintain a close dialogue with the government over the ongoing “solution process” between the state and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. However, the DEM Parti base must have found the treatment of İmamoğlu unfair, as many people representing the party also took part in the rally.
While CHP Chairman Özgür Özel’s speeches marked the Maltepe rally and the previous Saraçhane protests, it is possible to say that Özel, who was surprisingly elected CHP’s leader at the end of 2023, was generally successful in this process and tried to develop an intermediate formula to appease the anger of his voters but not to surrender to the government. In fact, before this problematic process, Özel wanted to start a “normalization” process by establishing a warm dialogue with the government after his election. However, Özel’s normalization initiative was halted due to the reactions from the party base and the subsequent operations against CHP municipalities. Now, it does not seem realistic to start “normalization” efforts again after İmamoğlu’s arrest. However, one should remember that this environment of polarization is expected to consolidate the right-wing base as well. Previously, tense polarization between the left (pro-secular groups) and the right (pious masses) helped the AK Parti and President Erdoğan in elections such as 2007, 2011, November 2015, 2018, and 2023. Interestingly, CHP and the opposition’s most successful result of recent years was obtained in the 2024 local elections, which the opposition entered with no hope or ambition and there was not much polarization. In that sense, the tactic of forcing polarization in the country must also be questioned by the opposition.
CHP leader Özgür Özel also had the opportunity to announce some of his new policies during this process. Özel, who reproached European leaders and especially United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister and Labour Party government leader Keir Starmer for not sending messages of solidarity after İmamoğlu’s arrest, announced that many television and media organizations and private companies would now be boycotted upon the demands of the youth. CHP will also try to maintain the opposition’s high momentum by continuing to hold rallies in Istanbul and a city in Anatolia every week. In addition, anti-government university students organized a boycott campaign on social media for April 2 demanding that all shopping be stopped for a day. It is anticipated that a significant portion of the public will respond positively to this demand. In this way, the opposition led by the CHP aims to pull the pro-government media and organizations that ignore them to the line of democracy.
However, it must be admitted that President Erdoğan and the AK Parti-MHP bloc have a stronger hand in terms of realpolitik. Following Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States (U.S.), Washington’s reluctance to interfere in the domestic politics of other countries and Washington’s need for Türkiye in the Middle East are Erdoğan’s primary trump cards. Moreover, it is thought that the Marco Rubio-Hakan Fidan meeting held the other day was preparing for the ground for the approaching Trump-Erdoğan summit (in April or May). Secondly, the European Union (EU) is also trying to act strategically due to the positive role Ankara has played in the Syrian refugee crisis and the great responsibilities it has assumed. Moreover, Brussels does not want to intimidate the government and make it closer to the Russia-China and BRICS bloc. That is why, European leaders have been keeping their criticisms of the government to a low level. Thirdly, the anti-Western bloc formed by countries such as Russia and China tends to rarely interfere in the domestic political issues of other states. For all these reasons, Erdoğan and the government have a very strong hand. Perhaps the only thing that can stop them is the determination of the Turkish youth.
As a result, the unpleasant Ramadan holiday in Türkiye is further increasing the polarization in the country and is virtually dividing the country into two large blocs. Which of these two large blocs will come to the fore in the next election will undoubtedly be affected by factors such as the attitude of the third power, the Kurds, the course of the economy and how Türkiye’s relations with the U.S. and the EU will proceed. Another issue is undoubtedly who will be the candidate of the CHP (there are demands for the cancellation of the earlier congress and return of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as the chairman) and the opposition and whether President Erdoğan will be able to run for a third term. After these uncertainties become clear, I think we should be ready for an early election in 2027. For now, it seems that if Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is not reinstated as the head of the CHP by a court decision, Erdoğan and Özgür Özel or Mansur Yavaş will compete in the next presidential election.
I wish everyone a happy and peaceful holiday…
Prof. Ozan ÖRMECİ
